How Denmark can save Greenland

The worst-case scenario has been confirmed these past few weeks; Trump and his administration want Greenland. The official reason is because of “the importance of the strategic security of the far-north and the Northwest Passage”. The real reason is that Trump wants to be a land-gaining president and cement himself as a major expander of the US, it’s just expansionism.

Earlier he entertained this idea with Canada and the Panama Canal, but he gave up on those because it’s too difficult and complicated. Greenland is the one he settled on because he 1) offered to buy it once (and got embarrassed politically), and 2) it’s sparsely populated and wouldn’t be difficult for the US to assimilate.

The bad news is that Trump is stupid enough to do it. The good news is that he’s only president for 4 years and he’s the only guy in American Politics who is hell-bent on this. Even people in his administration like Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz who claim to support it clearly don’t, they just don’t want to get fired.

It’s obvious that Denmark can’t beat the US militarily. But they can stop the US from invading. Here’s the best steps they could take to prevent the worst from passing:

Wait for something else to happen

One of the consistent features about Trump is that he tends to pick hills to fight on, and then abandon them with any major resistance. Like his recent birthright executive order being overturned by a judge. He pretty much completely gave up on that. Another was his recent “funding freeze” of core governmental functions.

In a few months, there’s a good chance that he’s pre-occupied with something else and he doesn’t have the time to think about Greenland, or he just doesn’t care as much anymore.

This is probably what’s going to end up happening.

Pretend to be interested in negotiation, wait Trump out

If Trump refuses to back off or gets more aggressive, then Danish party leaders need to get more creative. The Danish government needs to talk to the Americans like they’re serious about giving them Greenland, for a price. Trump is only in office for 4 years, so the Danes only need to string him along for that long.

Denmark could propose conditions that the US wouldn’t accept, like a land swap with the US Virgin Islands, or indefinite exclusive resource extraction rights on Greenland. Trump obviously won’t take this, but it gives the Danes an opportunity to go back to the drawing board and renegotiate among themselves, which kills time.

Put on a show in Danish government. Have random Danish parliamentarians propose bills that give Greenland to the US, to be shot town in committee. Make it look like there’s serious progress happening, and that it’s only a matter of time before a good deal is produced.

Make it a domestic Election issue, where the ruling party makes it clear to Trump that they can’t hand Greenland over because the Danish Elections are on 31/10/26, and they don’t want to lose in a landslide. In a few days after, the American midterm election happens and the Democrats will very likely win the House, or the House + Senate. If that happens, Trump’s ability to take over Greenland drops a lot.

If Denmark needs to in order to placate Trump, they could pass a bill that proposes a parliamentarian vote on a Greenland deal with the US; after a non-binding referendum on Greenland (non-binding to give the bill an excuse to go forward).

If Denmark successfully waits Trump out, the Danish government can’t admit they played Trump, but they must not pursue any more of this facade once Trump is gone so the next president doesn’t think that Denmark is serious about this.

Build backing among EU member states, and threaten a cooling of relations with the US if they invade Greenland. Make it not worth it

I saw one of the finest pieces of European solidarity recently, and its many European countries (like France) coming to Denmark’s defense. Denmark needs to build an alliance among EU and NATO allies. They need to make it clear that if the US invades a European nation, the EU will become friendlier with China. The European Union has already fired a few warning shots on this, and US intelligence probably takes it very seriously.

Unfortunately Trump doesn’t, and if he feels members of his administration are blocking his progress, he could just remove them. Denmark needs Trump to think that waiting Denmark out is the best path that gives him Greenland and a continued alliance with the EU.

Build strong relationships with the Democratic Party and future Republican superstars

American politics are entirely determined by domestic forces and internal political alliances. If the Danish government establishes itself as a Democratic Party ally and a supporter of post-Trump republicans, there’s no real pro-invasion force in American politics after Trump.

There’s good ways to do this. Have Danish left-wing politicians endorse popular democrats who will probably win, and Danish right-wing politicians do the same with potential post-Trump republicans. The Danish government also needs to start “lobbying” (bribing) politicians more. Israel and Egypt were exempt from Trump’s foreign aid freeze, that’s because they spend serious money bribing American politicians. Denmark needs to start doing the same.

If a Democrat wins the 2028 election and Trump invades during his Lame Duck period, offer a reset of relations if the Democrat pulls out after they’re inaugurated

This is a last ditch effort. Offering total forgiveness for the next administration if they pull out of Greenland, and giving them some concessions (mining rights, more NATO presence in Greenland, higher NATO spending, etc). If Denmark does this and the EU makes it clear that their red lines are serious, there’s a good chance the next president pulls out. Especially if it’s an opportunity to make the GOP look bad, because this invasion threat is objectively unpopular with Americans.

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This is realistically the best chance Denmark has of keeping Denmark. They can’t beat the US in conventional warfare or convince Trump to change his mind. But they can wait him out.