Predicting how DeSantis, Haley and Vivek would do vs Harris

DeSantis: Loss

DeSantis struggles in the rust belt as his abortion bill comes under attack and his economic policies are not like Trump's such as he's made environmental moves like banning fracking. He also gets hit on other issues like Covid and fighting LGBT in school. He wins Georgia and Arizona but loses the rust belt pretty handily and Nevada. He is not really any closer than Romney.

Haley: Loss

The polls show Harris with a slight lead in the summer due to advantage in the rust belt states where Haley is not as popular as Trump. While the media is nicer to her in some ways, they also tie her to Trump and say she wants to do project 2025. She gets praised for polish and doing more interviews than Harris. Suddenly, but election day, pollsters show Haley leading. It's like they're worried about underrating Republicans again like 2016/2020. But like 2022 midterm, the earlier polls end up better. She loses all three rust belt states and Nevada, but takes Arizona and Georgia. This is a close election where like Kerry 2004 one state around 1-2% would've flipped it.

Vivek: Win

Vivek runs on similar platform to Trump giving him appeal to working class in rust belt and Nevada. He gives birth to "Vivek Derangement Syndrome" of stories trying to make him sound too crazy to elect. But he is very active and energetic and has great debate vs Harris. As minority candidate he appeals to the Rogan, RFK type bros that didn't want to vote for Trump, and he gets conservative turnout. He loses states like Arizona and Georgia, but by winning all three rust belt states and Nevada, the math breaks his way in a close election. Republicans elect their Obama.