Bucky Irving vs Jonathan Taylor

This post is a continuation of my series where I take a look at players who will either be competing against one another on the same team, or players that should have similar ADPs in 2025 drafts

I created this series to keep these players on everyone's radar throughout the off-season, and to provide some hopefully insightful data, along with an evaluation of each player, that will help to determine who could be a better fantasy value in 2025, and if either player is worth being drafted

I appreciate feedback, especially from fans of either of the teams these players are on, and any constructive or well-informed arguments

Previous Posts: Jalen Coker vs Xavier Legette l Travis Etienne Jr. vs Tank Bigsby l Jauan Jennings vs Brandon Aiyuk l Marvin Harrison Jr. vs Courtland Sutton l Kyren Williams vs James Cook

Bucky Irving vs Jonathan Taylor

  • Irving and Taylor finished as the RB13 and RB12 respectively in 2024
  • They were both "league-winners" in different ways, and vary greatly in their play style, utilization, and tenure in the league
  • I chose to compare these two as a "talent vs situation" analysis, but I expect them both to go in the 2nd round in 2025 drafts
  • This was a longer write-up than any previous one, as there was a lot of info and data to evaluate with these two, and the fact I have them ranked so closely together (RB8 and RB9)

Bucky Irving and Jonathan Taylor 2024 Stats

Key for Abbreviations on the above Excel Data Set

There was a great article in the Dynasty Sub Reddit last year analyzing how "sticky" certain RB stats are as far as predicating future RB fantasy success:

  • The strongest year-to-year correlations are Rushing Yards, Carries, and Fantasy Points (Volume)
  • TD's are less reliable and more of a "fluky" fantasy stat for the majority of RBs
  • However, one of the biggest takeaways from this article was that rushing stats alone are not a great indication of how RBs will perform in fantasy, and receiving work impacts how predictable fantasy performance is because it usually accounts for 30-40% of the top tier RBs' fantasy production

TL:DR

Bucky Irving is one of the most dynamic and talented rookie RBs we have seen in a while

  • Even with limited opportunities (15 touches per game) he finished as the RB13, and as one of the highest graded running backs in the league on a top 5 offense
  • He was elite across the board as both a rusher and receiver, and was arguably the most elusive and prolific player at breaking tackles and churning out yards after contact last season
  • He doesn't have the build or size needed to be a bellcow in this league, and he is rated poorly as a pass blocker, but can still provide weekly RB1 numbers
  • He will likely continue to cede snaps to Rachaad White, who is talented as both a receiving back and pass blocker, but not as much as a rusher

I think with the expectation he does not exceed a 70% snap share, while being on an offense with a new OC calling plays for the first time in his career, will lead to Irving having a slightly limited ceiling compared to what people will expect of him

I would happily take him in the mid to late 2nd round in 2025 drafts

Jonathan Taylor was one of the few workhorse bellcow RBs in 2024

  • He was on a lower tier scoring offense (17th), with a top 5 OL, and had 23 touches per game resulting in 102 rushing yards per game (4th most rushing yards in the league with only 14 games played), despite being horribly graded almost across the board
  • He did a poor job of pass blocking, breaking tackles, evading defenders, and churning out yards after contact
  • He offers big play ability, but little as far as receiving work goes, and his team is lead by one of the worst QB's in the league (JT was still very solid in regards to his fantasy production when Richardson was the starter)
  • Colts fans listed poor coaching, playing calling, run scheme, and usage, as significant reasons why JT struggled at times this season
  • He had 31% of his total carries, 36% of his total rushing yards, and 55.5% of his total TD's the final 3 weeks of the season. These games were against 3 of the worst teams in the league, with horrible run defenses, who were essentially playing for nothing

Very few backs get the opportunity and volume, with a top rated OL, that Jonathan Taylor enjoys, but I can't ignore his lack of receiving upside alongside some horrible rushing metrics, especially if we take a look at his performances outside of those final 3 weeks

therefore I don't have a huge interest in drafting JT, but there is also nobody more talented on the team behind him to make you concerned he loses touches, so I feel like the early 3rd round would be a fine spot to take him

Buccaneers Offense

The Buccaneers were one of the most entertaining offenses in the league last season, and owning any of their players in fantasy football was a pleasure (what could have been Godwin, what could have been...)

They had the 4th highest scoring offense in the league (29.5 PPG), mid ranked run blocking OL (64.5 PFF Grade), and an above average 28.5 rushing attempts per game

  • They also had the 3rd most targets to Running Backs in the league (121), which was a great boost in fantasy value to both Irving and White

Baker Mayfield has solidified himself as a top 10 QB in the league, and regardless of whether or not Chris Godwin re-signs with the team, I think Mayfield has proven he can lead a consistently high scoring offense

One caveat in regard to this team is that their first year OC, Liam Cohen, left to become the HC of the Jaguars

  • Cohen was one of the best OC's in the NFL in 2024, and Buccaneers fans seemed to agree that he was one of the biggest reasons this offense was so successful, with his imaginative and creative play calling

The Buccaneers have promoted from within, and the former passing game coordinator, Josh Grizzard (10/10 name), will become the new OC

  • I and some Buccaneers fans might not be fond of HC Todd Bowles, but the majority were happy about this decision, and from browsing their sub reddit, I can see they seem to be both optimistic and excited about Grizzard being able to fill the shoes of Cohen
  • Here is a great post from their sub reddit outlining what Grizzard has accomplished and been responsible for on this team prior to his promotion to OC

I think there could be some slight regression from how prolific their offense was in 2024, simply because they will have a first-time play caller in Grizzard as the OC, but I still remain bullish they can be a top 10 unit once again with the weapons they have at their disposal

Bucky Irving

I think as early as his debut game against the Commanders week 1, we had an inkling of a feeling that Irving was a special kind of RB

His draft profile coming out of college was solid with the Oregon Ducks, and the Bucs took him in the 4th round with pick 125

He had an objectively bad combine which hurt his draft stock a little bit, but there were comparisons to the style and level of play of Kyren Williams' 2023 season, and here is what I had noted for Bucky:

  • Quick, gets up to top speed very quickly, he can break arm tackles and shake defenders off
  • Has issues breaking tackles behind the line of scrimmage, but his lateral agility when changing directions is a plus
  • He can be a solid check down or swing pass option out of the backfield

Not super extensive, but what I think we can learn from the Bucky Irving breakout experience is if we're going to target rookie RB's drafted behind a lead back who had 200+ touches the previous season, do so when that lead back was highly inefficient with those touches (Rachaad White in 2023) and we see signs in the draft profile and tape the player can be explosive

  • My 2025 "Bucky Irving" pick right now is whoever the Bears draft at RB behind Swift (Roshcon is not that guy either)
  • Their OL was actually not as bad as people think (65.6 Run Blocking Grade)

Bucky didn't really ramp up until week 12,, as he only had 3 games prior to that with 15+ touches

  • From weeks 12-18 (excluding week 14 when he injured his back) he averaged 21.2 touches per game resulting in 20.9 Fantasy PPG
  • As someone who watched the majority of those games, it honestly felt like he was still be under-utilized, and as there were several times he was stopped just short of the goal line and not rewarded with the TD on any of the following plays
  • Given we saw both White and Tucker fumble in the red zone inside the 10 yard line a few times, I would be hopeful Bucky sees more Red Zone work in 2025

2024 Stats:

  • Upper Tier - Overall PFF Grade (90.6), Rushing PFF Grade (89.0), Receiving PFF Grade (90.3) *2nd in the league, YPC (5.4), YCO/A (4.0) *1st in the league, FMT/T (30.3%), ER/T (13%), BAY (35.7%), Elusiveness Rating (122.1) *1st in the league, & EFF (3.35)
  • Above Average - W/O per game (12.8), RYOE/Att (.94), ROE % (41.9%), Receptions (47)
  • Mid Tier - Rushing Yards per game (66), Rushing TDs (8), Fumbles (2), & % YAC (66.4%)
  • Lower Tier - Pass Blocking PFF Grade (29.2), TM in RZ (46.9%)

Not only was Bucky mentioned as passing the eye test 6+ weeks on those weekly threads in this sub, he was statistically one of the best backs in the league as a rookie, and lead multiple rushing and receiving categories

  • When attempting to daft league winning RB's, we are typically going to look at players who have elite talent as both a rusher and receiver and Bucky fits that mold and then some (I still look at this article from 2021 that led me to draft Bijan early and often)

Two of the concerns when it comes to drafting Bucky in 2025 centers around his smaller size (5'10" 195 lbs.) potentially leading to injury, and his lack of volume

  • He averaged under a 60% snap share weeks 12-18, where he was clearly the best and most explosive back on the team
  • That concern for volume going forward is rooted in his poor pass ability to pass block
  • I think there will be games where the Buccaneers are playing from behind, and the game script becomes pass heavy
  • They'll likely need White on the field more than Bucky because of his stronger pass blocking and ability to be a receiving threat out of the backfield at the same time

Tony Pollard has become a shining example of what can happen when a change of pace explosive back, who was highly efficient on fewer than 15 touches a game, earns the lead back role the following season, and this can make people slightly nervous to draft that kind of RB in fantasy these days

  • Bucky however, showed us that he still achieves upper tier rushing metrics in games when he has 20+ touches as the lead back

That all being said, Bucky had a snap share of 45% in 2024, and managed to finish as the RB13 as a rookie. If we even see that share go up 10-15%, we are potentially looking at a top 5 back in 2025

Colts Offense

The Colts had a very up and down year, essentially fumbling their playoff chances at the end of the season once again

  • They have one of the worst passing QBs I have ever seen in Anthony Richardson, but still rolled with him the majority of the season
  • The Colts had the 17th highest scoring offense, 4th highest rated OL (77 PFF Grade), and an above average 29 rushes a game

Outside of Anthony Richardson's abysmal play, and JT's occasional struggles, most Colts fans seem to agree the woes of this offense were due to HC Shane Steichen

  • Many believe the usage, or lack there of, of JT at times was baffling, and they needed to lean on their run game more when it was clearly working
  • The harmony between their rushing and passing game was non-existent for a good portion of the season as well
  • The play calling and overall run scheme did not seem to make sense given the strengths and weakness of their players either
  • Outside of the play calling and scheme, Steichen seems to be better fit as an OC rather than HC, as he does not lead this locker room with discipline or hold the men on his team accountable

Unfortunately for Colts fans, owner Jim Irsay has already publicly shown his support for GM Chris Ballard and HC Shane Steichen to remain with the team through the 2025 season, so we may see more of the same from this offense going forward

Colts fans do seem somewhat divided on whether they should acquire RB talent in the middle rounds of the 2025 draft

  • Mainly because JT has had a few injury riddled season in a row, with very unfavorable metrics in 2024, and offers little to nothing as a receiver or pass blocker

However, most seem to agree that they have more pressing needs at other positions, but would be fine with the Colts using a later round pick on an RB for depth, given how stacked this draft class is

  • If they do draft a talented back, I am not viewing it like a Rachaad White vs Bucky situation. JT is still their guy, but a change of pace pass catching back would be interesting as far as taking touches away

Overall, there is concern this offense can function in a more efficient and consistently high level next season with Steichen at HC, and with Richardson remaining the starting QB. If significant RB talent is added behind JT in the draft, there could be some cause for concern, but I still think JT's starting role is relatively safe

Jonathan Taylor

Taylor seemingly had five different seasons to evaluate in one: weeks 1-4 when healthy, weeks 8-13 after his high ankle sprain, weeks 16-18 after the bye, the weeks when Richardson was the starter, and the weeks when Richardson was not

Weeks 1-4 (per game basis)

  • Carries: 18
  • Rushing Yards: 87
  • TDs: 1
  • Fantasy Points: 18.1

Richardson was the starter all 4 of these weeks, and this is likely the best sample size (albeit very small) to look at

Weeks 8-13 (per game basis)

  • Carries: 19
  • Rushing Yards: 76
  • TDs: .17
  • Fantasy Points: 11.6

Richardson was the starter 4 out of 6 of these weeks, and these stats are likely down because JT was hobbled by his ankle injury (tougher opponents too)

Weeks 16-18 (totals)

  • Carries: 95 (31.3% of season total)
  • Rushing Yards: 520 (36.3% of season total)
  • TDs: 6 (54.5% of season total)
  • Fantasy PPG: 30.8

Richardson was the starter 1 of these weeks, and the Colts played 3 of the worst teams in the league (Titans, Giants, & Jaguars), who all had bottom ranked run defenses, and were essentially playing for nothing

There were only 2 games where JT busted with Richardson as the starter, weeks 11 & 12 (post high ankle sprain), against the solid run defenses of the Lions and Jets

He also only played one game in 2023 (week 5) where Richardson was healthy, and scored 4.4 fantasy points

2024 Stats:

  • Upper Tier - W/O per game (17.5), Rush Yards per game (102.2), BAY (35.6%), Efficiency (3.38), TM in RZ (71.6%)
  • Above Average - Rushing TDs (11), YPC (4.7)
  • Mid Tier - ER/T (10.2%). ROE% (38.8%), Pass Blocking PFF Grade (43.4)
  • Lower Tier - Overall PFF Grade (56.9) *lowest in the league, Rushing PFF Grade (63.9), Receiving PFF Grade (36.9) *lowest in the league, Fumbles (4), YCO/A (2.7), % YAC (50.1%), FMT/T (13.1%) *2nd lowest in the league only to Gus Edwards, Elusiveness Rating (35.1), Receptions (18)

PFF Grades are definitely not the end-all-be-all when evaluating RB's, and most people are not a fan of these metrics anyway in regard to this position in seems like, but these numbers are still pretty alarming

  • He still showed some solid breakaway speed, especially the final few games of the season, but most of his value comes from his volume and top tier OL, and his stats seem skewed from those finals 3 games
  • He's also had fumbling issues on and off throughout his career, and his massive error in dropping the football right before the goaline against the Broncos week 15 more or less ended their playoff hopes (8 point swing in fantasy scoring that week as well)
  • Colts fans also confirm the obvious, that he is not a good receiving back and cannot be utilized effectively in the screen or dump off game, on top of the fact he is also a poor pass blocker
  • The majority of his 2024 metrics were the lowest in his career, and were especially unfavorable when comparing to his rookie or sophomore breakout season in 2020 & 2021 respectively

That all being said, I don't think we can say that we've already seen the best of JT, given he is only 26 years old, and hasn't been fully healthy since that RB1 overall season in 2021 (still on a $14 million dollar a year contract through 2026 as well)

  • I think Richardson is one of the worst QB's I have ever seen, and I don't have much faith he improves, but that does not seem to be concerning for JT's fantasy production
  • Colts fans still seem to believe he is still able to play at an elite level and that the play calling, usage, and run scheme, along with some OL injuries sprinkled throughout the season, were some of the biggest factors in JT struggling
  • As long as this team has a top rated OL, deploys a run first offense, has solid receiving weapons so the percentage of stacked boxes he sees remains under 20%, and do not acquire or draft top tier RB talent to put his touches at risk, I feel like he is still a safe pick with upside (all seem fairly likely for 2025)

Conclusion

This is one of the tougher comparisons I have had to evaluate in terms of which RB I would rather have in drafts next season as I try to be as objective as possible

  • I have both ranked back to back as the RB8 and RB9, but my personal bias and appreciation for owning Bucky last season contributes to me leaning towards taking him half a round earlier than Jonathan Taylor in 2025 drafts

Bucky may not see anywhere near the volume JT sees in 2025, but showed he can play at a much higher level, has great receiving upside, and is on a top tier offense with likely a better offensive scheme

  • In all honesty, there is a inherent added value to certain players because they are so entertaining to watch, and enjoyable to own, and Bucky is one of those players where we have probably not even seen his full ceiling yet either
  • Sure, there is some risk he never exceeds a 65% snap share, and the offensive stutters a little bit under a new OC, but 9 out of 15 of the top fantasy RBs in 2024 (in terms of PPG) had under a 65% snap share, so I think Bucky has all the tools and arguably the situation to finish as a top 5 back next season

JT will see more opportunities and has a far better offensive line, but had some very poor metrics, is not utilized much as a receiver, while having to endure a borderline inept coach and horrible starting QB

  • There are few teams who utilize an RB the way the Colts do with JT, where the fans also seem to all be in agreement his 23 touches per game was not enough at times, and where there is a lack of a threat to his role anywhere on the depth chart behind him
  • The majority of his metrics that were poor or towards the bottom of the league at the RB position, were way lower than any previous season JT has had, so it makes me think it was simply a down year and he can bounce back
  • I don't know if we will see him return to his RB1 overall season in 2021, but if he stays healthy, and still sees 20+ touches a game in an offense that is even slightly improved, he still feels like a lock to finish inside the top 10
  • We've seen what JT can do when healthy, especially against weaker teams, and even with Richardson as the starting QB, so yes I would still take Bucky before him, but if the Colts don't draft significant RB talent in April I would still feel confident rostering JT as an RB1

Obviously there will be more hype generated for Bucky and I expect him to be taken before JT in most drafts, but I actually moved JT up my rankings a little bit after this write-up despite some of the unfavorable data I compiled

Fantasy Pros currently has Bucky ranked as the RB7, going off the board around pick 17 which feels fairly accurate and Jonathan Taylor ranked as the RB9, going off the board around pick 23, which feels a little high pick wise, but accurate as far as his ranking at the position